Now that we’re officially into the election campaign, BC’s Dogwood Initiative has its eyes on some area ridings where it thinks there’s a close battle shaping up.
Dogwood worked with the polling firm Insights West on pre-election surveys in ridings that included West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast and Courtenay – Alberni
Dogwood’s Kai Nagata says the choice of ridings to track was also based on more than just a sense they’d be close. He says the ridings are ones where issues Dogwood works on – like climate change and pipelines – are likely to get a lot of attention.
The first surveys in May and July suggested the incumbent Conservatives were slightly behind in a tight race with the NDP and Liberals in West Vancouver Sunshine Coast.
Nagata says there’s an interesting dynamic at work, “You have a lot of traditional sympathy for the Liberal party, the rising fortunes of the NDP nationally… you’ve got lots of folks who are wealthier and in the upper age bracket who are traditionally expected to be Conservative supporters, and then you’ve got a Green candidate who’s a bit of a wild card.”
The early survey also indicated a showdown between the NDP and Conservatives in Courtenay-Alberni, with the NDP having the edge.
“I’m not surprised that people’s voting patterns are consistent with past years in terms of the ‘Orange/Blue’ split, but the lead that then NDP has opened up in some of these coastal ridings was surprising and we’re going to see if that holds up over time.” says Nagata.
On issue oriented questions, the survey indicated most voters in our area don’t think Canada is doing enough on climate change, and have concerns about increasing government surveillance of citizens.
Nagata says they’re hoping to follow up with fresh polls in September and early October.
You can download the full results and error estimates here:
Polling_InsightsWest_Dogwood_13Jul2015
